COMPREHENSIVE SPINOFF INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Upcoming Spinoffs Over Next 12 Months (August 2026 - August 2027)

Analysis Date: July 31, 2026 Pricing Date: All stock prices as of July 31, 2026 close (verified daily data via yfinance) unless otherwise noted.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: KEY CHANGES SINCE LAST REPORT (June 30, 2026)

Completed Since Last Report

Major Developments

• Midera (MFP) re-rated hard, +31.0% in its first 18 sessions — the market paid up for the food-processing pure-play despite the ≈18% EBITDA margin that kept it at B+. No fundamental news drove it; this is multiple expansion off a conservative spin price.
• ⚠️ Mobility Global (MBGL) regraded A+ → A on a data correction. The ≈60% EBITDA margin this report has carried is wrong: the Investor Day financials show FY2025 revenue of $1,750M, adjusted EBITDA of $711M (40.6% margin), free cash flow of $461M and GAAP net income of $220M. At $20.38 on 294.8M shares that is a $6.01B market cap, ≈$7.81B EV, 11.0x EV/Adj. EBITDA, 13.0x P/FCF and a 7.7% FCF yield. The business is unchanged and still a BUY — but at a reasonable price rather than the extraordinary discount an A+ implied. Price action was textbook: a day-5 low of $19.26, then a grind back to $20.38. Parent SPGI -0.7%. First standalone results August 7. Full analysis, dividend estimates and a dividend discount model in Part 3 §2.
• ⚠️ Resideo → ADI Global (ADIG) is the imminent name — and was downgraded on its own Form 10. Record date July 20 passed; distribution August 3; first regular-way trading August 4 on NYSE; 1 ADIG per 2 REZI, ≈75.75M shares. The amended information statement discloses a 6.6% adjusted EBITDA margin ($318M on $4,784M of FY2025 revenue), a $261M FY2025 net loss, Q1 2026 EBITDA down 14% year-over-year, ≈$1.0B of separation debt (3.14x gross leverage), and a CD&R convertible preferred holding ≈19.69% of voting power with two board seats. Downgraded B+ (3.45) → B (2.80) — reversing the upgrade made earlier this cycle — and the recommendation moves from buy-the-dip to HOLD.
• ⚠️ L3Harris postponed the Missile Solutions IPO to mid-2027 (announced July 29), from H2 2026. Downgraded B → B-; removed from the 2026 calendar.
• ⚠️ Keurig Dr Pepper lost its named Global Coffee CEO — Rafael Oliveira is departing at end-July for an outside CEO role, and the board (Chairman Pam Patsley) has reopened the search. Tim Cofer stays as Beverage Co CEO. Downgraded B+ → B (2.95) — the second consecutive negative cycle for this name after June’s timeline slip.
• KBR named its SpinCo “Trinzic,” set a firm January 4, 2027 date, and filled the C-suite (CEO-designate Michael LaRouche, ex-Serco North America; CFO named June 25). Upgraded B → B+ (3.40).
• Corteva raised FY 2026 guidance on July 30 and reaffirmed the October 1 Vylor separation. Grade A- maintained and still the highest-graded upcoming name — but now flagged provisional: the June 29 Form 10-12B is preliminary, leaving Vylor’s debt, its cash distribution to EIDP, the distribution ratio and the record date as blank placeholders, with no amendment filed as of July 31. The structure confirms Vylor levers up to pay the parent; only the amount is unknown.
• Comcast/NBCUniversal: the June 29 announcement now carries a detail that matters — Comcast expects to retain up to 19.9% of the SpinCo for up to one year. Grade B+, score trimmed 3.45 → 3.40 on the retained-stake overhang.
• Eaton → Mobility Group is a Reverse Morris Trust with Dana (DAN), not a classic spin — corrected this report. Announced June 10: Eaton holders ≥50.1% / Dana holders ≈49.9%, ≈$5.1B value, ≈$10B combined EV, ≈$11B sales / ≈$1.7B adj. EBITDA, ≈$1.1B cash to Eaton, close Q1 2027. Grade B maintained on firmer terms.
• New Fortress Energy cleared its legal path — the English court sanctioned the restructuring plans June 18, and the SDNY granted Chapter 15 recognition July 14. Funded debt drops from ≈$5.7B to under $1B; BrazilCo/CoreCo separation proceeds. Grade C maintained (creditor-led, not shareholder-value-driven).
• SOLS -32.1% on an acquisition, not an earnings miss — Solstice announced a $14.5B cash-and-stock acquisition of Element Solutions alongside Q2 results (July 30) and raised FY guidance (revenue to $4.13–4.19B, adj. EBITDA to $1.04–1.06B). The market rejected the exchange ratio. Downgraded ⭐⭐⭐⭐ BUY → ⭐⭐⭐ HOLD pending deal terms — a clean spin turning large-scale acquirer is a different security than the one we graded.
• TRAX +118.9% — the month’s outlier. Positive read-through from a competitor’s CD122-pathway Phase 1b data plus Russell index additions took First Tracks from $20.12 to $44.04. Still pre-revenue and SPECULATIVE, but no longer a bottom-fishing entry.
• Q -19.7% on valuation compression from its June 22 all-time high ($175.64), not fundamentals; Q2 results land August 4. BUY maintained.

NEW Spinoffs Added to Tracking

Removed / Status Changed

• MBGL, MFP: Completed; moved to Part 3 tracking.
• ⚠️ L3Harris → Missile Solutions: IPO delayed to mid-2027 (from H2 2026). Still tracked; downgraded to B-.
• ⚠️ Keurig Dr Pepper → Global Coffee Co: CEO-designate departing; search reopened. Downgraded to B.
• Eaton → Mobility Group: structure corrected to RMT with Dana; previously carried as a classic spinoff.
• KBR → Mission Technology Solutions: now named Trinzic; date firmed to January 4, 2027 (slipped out of 2026, but with a hard date and a full C-suite).
• J&J → DePuy Synthes: the mid-2026 spin-vs-sale decision did not arrive. Kept tracked at B with the decision flagged overdue; external trackers have begun pushing the timing to H2 2027.
• Textron → Industrial: timing drifting to Q2–Q3 2027; path (sale vs spin) still undecided. Industrial revenue now quantified at >$3B.
• ABVC BioPharma → BioKey: distribution ≈August 3 — still pending as of the pricing date.
• Kraft Heinz (paused), Teleflex (converted to sales), Microsoft → Xbox (rumor/under review): unchanged, not tracked as active spins.
• Not individually tracked (non-US or pre-announcement): SoftBank → Roze, Associated British Foods → Primark, Siemens Energy → Industrial Turbines, Baidu → Kunlunxin, Jollibee → International, Evotec → Just Biologics, Alibaba (HKEX-approved spin). Monitored via trackers for any US-listing path.

Part 1: Upcoming Spinoffs Overview (Next 12 Months)

IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES (Next 30 Days)

Sort: within bucket, by investment grade (highest first).

Q3 2026 SPINOFFS (Aug–Sep)

Q4 2026 SPINOFFS (Oct–Dec)

Q1 2027 SPINOFFS (Jan–Mar)

Q2–Q4 2027 SPINOFFS (Approaching / Just Beyond the 12-Month Window)

Sort: within bucket, by investment grade (highest first); ties broken by the Part 2 ranking.

EXPLORATORY / UNCERTAIN TIMING

Summary: 25 active separations tracked over the next 12–15 months after two completions this cycle (MBGL, MFP) and one new large-cap addition (HF Sinclair). Most imminent by far: ADI Global (ADIG) — distribution August 3, first trade August 4, though its Form 10 disclosures cut the grade to B. After that the calendar thins until Corteva/Vylor on October 1. Largest by revenue: Comcast/NBCUniversal (≈$40B+), KDP Global Coffee (≈$16B), McKesson Med-Surg ($11.4B), Eaton/Dana combined (≈$11B), Corteva ($9.9B seed + $7.8B crop protection). Highest quality: Corteva → Vylor (A-), now the top-graded upcoming name with Mobility Global graduated to Part 3. The month’s trend was slippage — L3Harris to mid-2027, KBR into Q1 2027, Textron drifting to Q2–Q3 2027, J&J’s decision overdue — against a single new announcement (HF Sinclair).

Part 2: In-Depth Analysis (Top-Tier & Imminent)

Upcoming Spinoffs — Ranked by Grade

All tracked upcoming separations, ranked by investment grade. Score is the weighted scorecard value (shown for the deep-dived names); ★ is the quick visual tier mapped from grade.

Micro-cap footnotes not ranked: ABVC → BioKey (≈Aug 3), Jet.AI → DCTR, Click Holdings → Logistics.

Sort: by investment grade / weighted score, highest first. Ties broken by transaction size. Completed names (MBGL, MFP) moved to Part 3. † Corteva’s 3.80 is provisional: the Vylor Form 10-12B filed June 29 leaves the debt quantum, the cash distribution to EIDP, the distribution ratio and the record date as blank placeholders, and no amendment had been filed as of July 31. Financial Profile is scored 4 without the leverage input — see §1.

Deep-dive roster note: the five deep-dives below are the five highest-graded upcoming names. Resideo/ADI is promoted on imminence and its record-date de-risking; KBR/Trinzic takes the slot previously earmarked for L3Harris MSL, whose IPO slipped 12 months on July 29.

1. Corteva → Vylor (Seed) / New Corteva

Executive Summary

• Company: Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) — Current Price: $78.71 (Jul 31, 2026)
• SpinCo: Vylor, Inc. (Seed) — spun from New Corteva (Crop Protection)
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs — Expected Completion: October 1, 2026
• Structure: Classic Spinoff — Investment Grade: A- (Strong Opportunity)
• Key Thesis: Now the highest-graded name on the upcoming board. A clean two-way split in which Seed (Vylor, ≈$9.9B) and Crop Protection (New Corteva, ≈$7.8B) each become focused pure-plays. The sitting Corteva CEO (Chuck Magro) moving to Seed remains the strongest single signal that Vylor is viewed as the crown jewel.

Transaction Overview

• SpinCo (Vylor): Seed and genetics — Pioneer germplasm, traits and licensing; ≈$9.9B revenue. CEO Chuck Magro; Independent Chair Karen Grimes (ex-Wellington)
• RemainCo (New Corteva): Crop protection chemistry and biologicals; ≈$7.8B revenue. CEO Luke Kissam
• Rationale: Seed and crop protection have divergent capital intensity, R&D cycles and margin structures; separation lets each be valued on its own terms
• Filing note: In the Form 10, Vylor is presented as the continuing operations of Corteva, Inc., with New Corteva shown as discontinued operations — a structural detail worth understanding before comparing historical financials
• ⚠️ Debt allocation not yet disclosed: The Form 10 confirms the mechanism — Vylor will incur debt and use a portion of the proceeds to make a cash distribution to EIDP, which then passes to Corteva — but leaves the amounts blank. This is the same pattern as S&P Global taking ≈$1.9B out of Mobility Global: the SpinCo levers up to pay the parent. Direction confirmed, magnitude unknown
• Also disclosed: ≈$270M of separation-related SG&A not yet recognized (advisors, counsel, bank success fees, tax costs), and $70–80M of 2026 restructuring charges — severance from workforce reductions, substantially complete by December 2026. The Vylor financing is expected to be floating-rate (SOFR plus a spread)

Key Developments Since Last Report

• July 30: Q2 / 1H 2026 results — FY 2026 outlook raised, and the company explicitly reaffirmed it is on track for the October 1 separation
• June 29: Initial Form 10-12B filed — but in preliminary form, with the debt quantum, the Vylor cash distribution to EIDP, the distribution ratio and the record date all left as blank placeholders. No amendment had been filed as of July 31, eight weeks from the October 1 target
• Board composition for both entities disclosed in late June

Investment Scorecard

Grade Change: Maintained A- (3.80) — but flagged provisional. The July 30 guidance raise and October 1 reaffirmation removed the last meaningful timing risk without changing the underlying business mix. The open question is leverage: Vylor’s debt and the size of its cash distribution to the parent are still undisclosed, and this report’s own experience with Mobility Global and ADI Global is that the separation debt is precisely where a spinoff’s financial profile is decided. The amended Form 10 is the single most important document pending on this name, and it can move the grade either way. Recommendation: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ BUY — own CTVA into the record date to receive both entities. Next catalysts: the amended Form 10 with the debt and ratio filled in, then the record-date announcement (≈September).

Acquisition Analysis (SpinCo)

Potential Acquirers: Limited by scale and antitrust. Bayer Crop Science and Syngenta/ChemChina are the only strategic fits for Vylor’s germplasm and both face insurmountable overlap review. Large-cap PE consortia could pursue New Corteva’s crop-protection assets, which are more divisible. Acquisition Likelihood: Low for Vylor, Low-Medium for New Corteva. Impact on Thesis: Acquisition is not the thesis here — the value case is the re-rating of two focused ag businesses out of a conglomerate multiple.

Sources

• PR Newswire — Corteva delivers strong 1H 2026, raises FY 2026 outlook, on-track for October 1 separation
• SEC — Vylor Form 10-12B information statement (preliminary; amounts left blank)
• SEC — ADI Global Distribution Form 10-12B/A information statement (July 1, 2026)

2. Comcast → NBCUniversal

Executive Summary

• Company: Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) — Current Price: $23.96 (Jul 31, 2026)
• SpinCo: NBCUniversal — Universal studios & theme parks, NBC, Telemundo, Peacock, Bravo, Sky
• Industry: Media & Entertainment — Expected Completion: ≈Mid-2027
• Structure: Classic Spinoff (tax-free) · Retained Stake — Investment Grade: B+ (Solid Opportunity)
• Key Thesis: The largest separation on the board. Comcast splits its slow-growth connectivity business (Xfinity broadband/wireless/business) from its content and experiences assets (Universal parks & studios, NBC networks, Peacock, Sky), letting each pursue distinct capital strategies and be valued on its own multiple. The July refinement is that this is not a fully clean break at Day 1.

Transaction Overview

• RemainCo (Comcast connectivity): Xfinity broadband, wireless, business services; CEO Michael Angelakis
• SpinCo (NBCUniversal): Universal Destinations & Experiences, Universal Pictures, NBC/Telemundo, Peacock, Bravo, Sky; CEO Mike Cavanagh
• Rationale: Separate the cash-generative connectivity utility from the IP/content/parks growth engine. Distinct from the completed Versant spin, which carved out only the linear cable networks
• ⚠️ Retained stake: Comcast expects to retain up to 19.9% of the SpinCo for up to one year post-distribution

Key Developments Since Last Report

• June 29, 2026: Board announced the separation (8-K filed); tax-free; targeted ≈mid-2027
• July: The Q2 10-Q disclosure clarified the up-to-19.9% / up-to-one-year retained interest. Form 10 not yet filed; no ticker announced
• Read-across: tracked SpinCo Versant (VSNT) — Comcast’s prior media carve-out — sits -20.3% vs Day 1, a live cautionary data point for how the market prices Comcast media assets

Investment Scorecard

Grade Change: B+ maintained; score trimmed 3.45 → 3.40. Trigger: disclosure of the up-to-19.9% retained stake. The FedEx Freight (FDXF) experience in this same report — a 19.9% retained stake, a soft debut and a day-59 new low — is the direct precedent for why partial distributions deserve a discount.

Recommendation: ⭐⭐⭐ MONITOR — too early to position. The Form 10 is not yet filed, no ticker has been set, and distribution is ≈10 months out, so there is no record date to own CMCSA into. The read-across to underwrite in the meantime is Versant (VSNT, -20.3% vs Day 1), Comcast’s prior media carve-out and the best available proxy for how this market prices Comcast media assets. Reassess on the Form 10 — and on whether the up-to-19.9% retained stake is reduced or eliminated before distribution, which is the single change that would move the score back up.

Acquisition Analysis (SpinCo)

Potential Acquirers: At ≈$40B+ of revenue, NBCUniversal is acquirable only by a handful of parties — Netflix (regulatorily implausible for the broadcast assets), Amazon or Apple (balance-sheet capable, parks are a poor fit), or a sovereign/PE consortium for the parks alone. Acquisition Likelihood: Low as a whole; Medium for piecewise divestiture of Sky or the cable-adjacent assets post-spin. Impact on Thesis: Minimal — this is a value-unlock story, not a takeout story.

Sources

• CNBC — Comcast to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky from cable business
• SEC — Comcast Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026

3. KBR → Trinzic

Executive Summary

• Company: KBR, Inc. (KBR) — Current Price: $36.61 (Jul 31, 2026)
• SpinCo: Trinzic (Mission Technology Solutions) — name unveiled July 30, 2026
• Industry: Defense / Government Technology Services — Expected Completion: January 4, 2027
• Structure: Classic Spinoff — Investment Grade: B+ (Solid Opportunity)
• Key Thesis: A ≈$5.8B-revenue government technology services business with ≈20,000 employees separating from KBR’s Sustainable Technology Solutions. What changed this cycle is execution credibility: the SpinCo now has a name, a firm January 4, 2027 distribution date, and a full C-suite — the three gaps that held it at B.

Transaction Overview

• SpinCo (Trinzic): Mission Technology Solutions — defense, space, intelligence and federal engineering services; ≈$5.8B revenue, ≈20,000 employees. CEO-designate Michael LaRouche (currently CEO of Serco North America; 30+ years leading multi-billion-dollar businesses); CFO named alongside
• RemainCo (KBR): Sustainable Technology Solutions — process technology licensing, energy transition, higher-margin and asset-light
• Rationale: Government services and technology licensing have incompatible margin profiles, contract structures and valuation multiples. Separation lets STS be valued as a technology licensor rather than a services contractor

Key Developments Since Last Report

• June 25: CEO and CFO of the SpinCo named — LaRouche as President & CEO-designate
• July 30: SpinCo brand unveiled as Trinzic
• Completion date set at January 4, 2027 — a slip out of the previously guided “mid-to-late 2026,” but replaced by a hard date rather than a range

Investment Scorecard

Grade Change: Upgraded B → B+ (3.40). Trigger: CEO/CFO appointments (June 25) and a firm January 4, 2027 date. Per the methodology, a CEO search in progress scores Management at 2; recruiting a sitting CEO of a peer government-services business justifies a 4. The timeline slip out of 2026 is real but is offset by the date now being specific rather than a range. Recommendation: ⭐⭐⭐ ACCUMULATE KBR ahead of the record date (expect ≈December 2026). Trinzic’s services profile is unlikely to re-rate dramatically; the more interesting post-spin security may be RemainCo KBR as an asset-light technology licensor.

Acquisition Analysis (SpinCo)

Potential Acquirers:

1. Leidos (LDOS) — the natural consolidator in federal IT/mission services; overlapping customer sets and clear cost synergies
2. Amentum (AMTM) — itself a recent spin-merge; scale-driven strategy makes Trinzic a fit
3. PE (Veritas Capital, Arlington Capital) — both specialize in carving and recombining federal services assets

Acquisition Likelihood: Medium — federal services consolidates continuously, and a clean, unlevered SpinCo with no parent stake is an easy target. Regulatory barriers are low; the constraint is organic-conflict and recompete risk. Estimated Timeline: 12–24 months post-spin (i.e., 2028). Impact on Thesis: A meaningful secondary support to the valuation floor.

Sources

• KBR — Names CEO and CFO of Mission Technology Solutions spin-off business
• SEC — KBR Form 8-K (Q2 2026)

4. Keurig Dr Pepper → Global Coffee Co — ⚠️ Downgraded on CEO departure

Executive Summary

• Company: Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) — Current Price: $31.12 (Jul 31, 2026)
• SpinCo: Global Coffee Co. (+ Beverage Co. — full two-way split)
• Industry: Coffee / Beverage — Expected Completion: Early 2027
• Structure: Classic Spinoff — Investment Grade: B (Moderate / Hold) ⬇️
• Key Thesis: Post-JDE Peet’s, KDP is assembling the world’s largest standalone coffee company (≈$16B sales, ≈$400M targeted synergies). The strategic logic is intact — but the execution case has now deteriorated two cycles running: June brought a timeline slip to early 2027, and July removed the SpinCo’s named CEO.

Key Developments Since Last Report

• ⚠️ Rafael Oliveira, head of KDP’s Coffee Operating Unit and the designated Global Coffee Co CEO, notified the company he will depart at the end of July for an external CEO opportunity
• The board has reopened the CEO search, with Chairman Pam Patsley leading it; Tim Cofer (KDP CEO) will oversee coffee in the interim and become CEO of Beverage Co post-separation
• FY 2026 guidance reaffirmed (net sales $25.9–26.4B); Q2 results due August 6
• Net leverage of ≈4.5x post-JDE Peet’s remains the balance-sheet overhang

Investment Scorecard

Grade Change: Downgraded B+ (3.35) → B (2.95). Trigger: the designated SpinCo CEO’s departure and the reopening of the search. The methodology scores “CEO search ongoing / key roles unfilled” at 2, and losing an already-named CEO before separation is a stronger negative signal than never having named one — it invites the question of what the incoming executive saw in the standalone plan. Combined with June’s slip to early 2027 and ≈4.5x leverage, this is now a watch-and-wait name. Recommendation: ⭐⭐ HOLD / AVOID NEW MONEY until a permanent Global Coffee CEO is named. Reassess on that appointment and on the Q2 print (August 6).

Acquisition Analysis (SpinCo)

Potential Acquirers: Nestlé (overlap in single-serve would draw scrutiny), JAB Holding (former JDE Peet’s controlling shareholder, knows the assets intimately), large-cap PE for the Keurig hardware/razor-blade model. Acquisition Likelihood: Low near-term — ≈4.5x leverage and ≈$16B of sales make a takeout expensive; JAB is the only obvious motivated party. Impact on Thesis: Not a supporting pillar. This name has to work on execution.

Sources

• SEC — Keurig Dr Pepper Form 8-K (leadership transition)
• StockTitan — KDP Q2 2026 call set for August 6

5. Resideo → ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) — ⚠️ Distributes August 3 · downgraded on Form 10 disclosures

Executive Summary

• Company: Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) — Current Price: $34.30 (Jul 31, 2026)
• SpinCo: ADI Global Distribution, Inc. (ticker ADIG, NYSE)
• Industry: Security / Low-Voltage / HVAC Distribution — Expected Completion: August 3, 2026 (distribution), August 4 (first regular-way trade)
• Structure: Classic Spinoff · Anchor Investor (CD&R convertible preferred) — Investment Grade: B (Moderate / Hold) ⬇️
• Key Thesis: The most imminent separation on the board, and the one whose investment case weakened most on close reading of the filings. ADI is the leading North American distributor of security, fire, AV and low-voltage products — genuine scale at ≈$4.8B of revenue. But the amended Form 10 discloses a 6.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, a $261M FY2025 net loss, ≈$1.0B of separation debt (3.14x gross leverage), and a CD&R preferred stake carrying ≈19.69% of voting power and two board seats. The record date has passed; this is now a watch-and-price-discovery name rather than a dip-buy.

Transaction Overview

• SpinCo (ADI Global Distribution): Wholesale distribution of security, fire/life-safety, AV, networking and low-voltage products; ≈$4.8B revenue, 4,100+ associates across 20 countries, 100,000+ professional customers. CEO Robert Aarnes
• RemainCo (Resideo): Products & Solutions — thermostats, sensors, water and air, Honeywell Home licensed brand
• Terms: 1 ADIG per 2 REZI; ≈75.75M shares outstanding at distribution; tax-free to Resideo shareholders
• ⚠️ Separation debt: ADI incurs ≈$1.0 billion in connection with the spin-off — a term credit facility plus a series of debt securities. Against FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $318M that is 3.14x gross leverage, and higher on the Q1 2026 run-rate
• ⚠️ CD&R preferred: A portion of Resideo’s CD&R-held preferred stock is exchanged into ADI Series A Cumulative Convertible Participating Preferred Stock. Immediately following the spin-off the CD&R Group beneficially owns common plus preferred representing ≈19.69% of total voting power on an as-converted basis, and may designate up to two directors. The filing’s own risk factors state that CD&R’s interests as a preferred holder “may diverge from, or even conflict with, the interests of the other holders of our common stock”

What the Form 10 disclosed

Three things stand out. Margins are materially thinner than the sector assumption — 6.6% adjusted EBITDA, below the 10–15% band this report had implicitly assigned. Profitability is negative — a $261M net loss in 2025, reflecting in part ≈$95M of annual intangible amortization from the June 2024 Snap One acquisition. And the trend runs the wrong way: Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA fell 14% year-over-year ($65M → $56M) on revenue up 7.6%, compressing margin from 5.8% to 4.6%.

The genuine offset is mix. Exclusive-brand products grew from ≈$134M (4% of revenue) in 2023 to ≈$842M (18%) in 2025, largely through Snap One. Exclusive brands carry structurally better margins than third-party distribution, so the mix shift is a credible path to margin recovery — it simply has not yet reached reported results.

Key Developments Since Last Report

• July 1: Board set the record date (July 20) and the distribution timetable; amended Form 10 (10-12B/A) filed
• July 7: NYSE listing certified; registration statement declared effective
• July 20: Record date passed ⚠️
• ≈July 29: When-issued trading began (ADIG WI on NYSE)
• August 3, 5:00pm ET: Distribution; August 4: first regular-way ADIG trading

Investment Scorecard

Grade Change: Downgraded B+ (3.45) → B (2.80), reversing the upgrade made earlier in this same cycle. That upgrade was awarded for execution certainty — record date set, Form 10 effective, CEO named — and all of that remains true. What changed is that reading the amended Form 10 replaced an assumed margin profile with the disclosed one: 6.6% adjusted EBITDA, a $261M net loss, ≈$1.0B of separation debt at 3.14x leverage, and a preferred stack sitting ahead of the common. Timing certainty does not compensate for a weaker business than assumed.

Recommendation: ⭐⭐ HOLD / WATCH PRICE DISCOVERY. The record date has passed, so participation now requires buying in the open market from August 4. Given the leverage and the margin trajectory, the disciplined approach is to let the post-spin forced-selling window run rather than buy the debut, and to reassess against the first standalone quarter. The exclusive-brand mix shift is the variable to monitor — if it converts into reported EBITDA expansion, the grade moves back up.

Acquisition Analysis (SpinCo)

Potential Acquirers:

1. Wesco International (WCC) — direct adjacency in electrical and security distribution; route density and supplier-leverage synergies
2. Sonepar / Rexel (European electrical distributors) — both have stated North American expansion ambitions and a record of buying scale
3. CD&R itself — already holding ≈19.69% of voting power and two board seats, the most natural path is a take-private rather than a third-party sale

Acquisition Likelihood: Low-to-Medium — reduced from the prior assessment. A newly independent distributor with no controlling common holder would ordinarily be an easy target, but ≈$1.0B of fresh debt and a cumulative convertible participating preferred materially narrow the field of buyers and complicate the capital structure. Estimated Timeline: 18–36 months post-spin. Impact on Thesis: CD&R’s position cuts both ways — it is a governance overhang for common holders and simultaneously the most plausible eventual bidder.

Sources

• SEC — ADI Global Distribution Form 10-12B/A, information statement (July 1, 2026)
• Resideo — Board sets record date and timing for ADI spin-off
• PR Newswire — Record date July 20, distribution August 3, 1-for-2

Part 2B: BRIEF UPDATES — OTHER TRACKED UPCOMING SPINOFFS

• Modine/Gentherm → Performance Technologies RMT: On track for an early Q4 2026 close, but as of July 23 the Form S-4 and Form 10 are not yet effective — no securities may be issued or transferred until they are. Still requires Gentherm shareholder approval, SpinCo financing, an IRS ruling and regulatory clearances. ≈$1.0B transaction. (B maintained.)
• Barrick → North American Barrick: IPO reaffirmed by year-end 2026; NYSE primary / TSX secondary. Key detail sharpened this cycle: only 10–15% will be floated, with Barrick retaining 85–90% — a heavy overhang structurally similar to Medtronic/MiniMed. Executive team dedicated to the entity has been appointed; Newmont discussions continue over the Nevada Gold Mines JV and Fourmile timing. (B maintained; the small float is the reason it does not rise.)
• Eaton → Mobility Group + Dana (STRUCTURE CORRECTED): This is a Reverse Morris Trust, not a classic spin — definitive agreements signed June 10, 2026. Eaton separates Mobility (exchange offer or pro-rata distribution) and immediately merges Dana into it. Eaton holders ≥50.1%, Dana holders ≈49.9%; Mobility valued at ≈$5.1B, combined EV >$10B, ≈$11B pro-forma sales and ≈$1.7B adj. EBITDA with $250M run-rate synergies targeted within 24 months; ≈$1.1B cash distribution to Eaton funded by new SpinCo debt. Close expected Q1 2027. (B maintained — firmer terms offset by cyclical vehicle end-markets and unresolved combined-company leadership.)
• Flex → Power & Cloud Infrastructure: On track for Q1 2027; SpinCo leadership confirmed and the SpinCo name is due to be unveiled in September. Revathi Advaithi to lead. AI data-center power and thermal exposure remains the most attractive end-market of any 2027 spin. (B maintained; a name, Form 10 and standalone financials are the upgrade triggers.)
• Genuine Parts → Global Industrial (Motion): No material July development. Q1 2027; ≈$9B sales, $1.1B+ EBITDA. (B maintained.)
• International Paper → EMEA Packaging: Q1 2027 (trackers now frame it as 12–15 months from the January 29 announcement); dual LSE + NYSE listing; IP retains 20% for 12–18 months; ≈$200M of EMEA cost reduction underway. (B maintained.)
• Unilever → Foods/McCormick RMT: ⚠️ The UK Competition and Markets Authority opened a consultation on July 21, with responses due August 5 — the first formal regulatory gate. Deal value ≈$45B ($15.7B cash + $29.1B stock); Unilever holders end with ≈65%, McCormick holders ≈35%. Excludes Unilever’s Indian foods operations and certain smaller markets. Mid-2027. (B maintained; CMA review is now the principal risk.)
• McKesson → Medical-Surgical Solutions: No material July development. H2 2027 via the Apollo-investment route (≈13% minority stake, ≈$1.25B) rather than a clean spin. (B maintained.)
• J&J → DePuy Synthes: ⚠️ The mid-2026 spin-vs-sale decision did not arrive. J&J continues to weigh a $20B+ private-equity sale against the originally announced tax-free spin; the original October 2025 guidance was 18–24 months to completion, and external trackers have begun moving the expected timing to H2 2027. Kept tracked at B with the decision flagged overdue — a delay of this kind is a red flag under the methodology, but with $9.3B of revenue and two viable paths the underlying asset quality is unchanged.
• HF Sinclair → Lubricants & Specialties (NEW): Announced July 28. A ≈$2.3B-revenue (2025) lubricants and specialties business separating “through the capital markets” into an independent public company over 12–18 months, intended to be tax-efficient; no shareholder vote required, subject to final board approval, a tax opinion and SEC filings. Announced alongside the retirement of Mississauga, Ontario base-oil refining assets (substantially complete during 2027), though blending, packaging, R&D and commercial operations stay in the region. Management frames the SpinCo as capital-light with stronger, more consistent free cash flow. Initial grade B — a credible focus-unlock with recognized brands, but announced in the same breath as an asset retirement, with no SpinCo leadership named and no Form 10 on file.
• Medtronic → MiniMed full exit: MMED partial IPO completed March (28.0M shares at $20, ≈$538M net proceeds); Medtronic still owns ≈90.03%, and management’s stated preferred path for the remainder is a split-off, targeted by year-end 2026. MMED $18.05 (+20.7% in July; -9.8% vs the $20 IPO). (B- maintained.)
• L3Harris → Missile Solutions (MSL): ⚠️ On July 29 L3Harris postponed the IPO to mid-2027, from H2 2026, despite strong solid-rocket-motor demand. The confidential Form S-1 (submitted April 29) stands; no share count or price range set; the $1B Department of War convertible preferred still converts at IPO, with LHX retaining ≈80%+. Downgraded B → B- on a 12-month slip with no offsetting disclosure.
• Textron → Industrial: Path still undecided between an outright sale and a tax-free spin. Industrial (Kautex + Textron Specialized Vehicles) now quantified at >$3B revenue, to be repositioned as a global mobility-focused company; trackers place completion in Q2–Q3 2027. (B- maintained.)
• Adaptive Biotechnologies → Immune Medicine: Q2 results (July 29) raised FY 2026 MRD revenue guidance to $268–278M; MRD revenue has grown $103M (2023) → $212M (2025) with $15M of 2025 adjusted EBITDA. Morgan Stanley retained; preferred separation path still due by year-end 2026. Management explicitly frames MRD as the value driver and Immune Medicine as a “call option.” (B- maintained; the structure decision is the catalyst.)
• MSG Sports → NY Rangers: No July development. Confidential Form 10 filed May 18; no timetable set; NHL and NBA approvals required. (C+ maintained.)
• Spectrum Brands → Home & Personal Care (re-added): Confidential Form 10 has been on file since 2024; the company continues to pursue a spin, sale, merger or other transaction in parallel and has disclosed no timetable. Brands include Remington, George Foreman and Russell Hobbs; RemainCo would be a pure-play Pet + Home & Garden business. (C+ — a live process with no committed structure or date.)
• New Fortress Energy → BrazilCo / CoreCo: The English court sanctioned the Part 26A restructuring plans on June 18 (six of seven classes unanimous, the seventh 99.84% in favor), and on July 14 the SDNY recognized them as foreign main proceedings under Chapter 15, giving the sanction order full effect in the US. Funded external debt falls from ≈$5.7B to under $1B; the group separates into BrazilCo and CoreCo. Q3 2026. (C maintained — the legal path is now clear, but this remains a creditor-led restructuring in which existing equity is heavily diluted.)
• ABVC BioPharma → BioKey: Distribution ≈August 3, 2026; micro-cap partial taxable spin (≈15% distributed, ≈85% retained), intended OTC listing. Footnote only.
• Jet.AI → Data Center Co. (DCTR) (NEW) and Click Holdings → Logistics (NEW): Micro-cap announcements (July 14 and July 21). Jet.AI’s is a non-binding letter of intent for a merger-plus-spin leaving holders equity in two public companies; Click disclosed no terms. Footnotes only — neither is investable on current disclosure.

Part 3: COMPLETED SPINOFFS — Extended Post-Spinoff Analysis

All prices as of July 31, 2026 close (verified daily data). SpinCo returns vs the Day-1 reference basis fixed in prior reports (open or close as noted per name); post-spin low = lowest closing price since the first regular-way trading day.

COMPLETED SPINOFFS SUMMARY TABLES

Table A: Overview & Ratings

Sort: by spinoff date, most recent first. All SpinCo returns vs Day-1 reference unless noted. * Parent baselines for FDX, HXGBF, APLD and ANAB are restated this report to each parent’s first regular-way (ex-distribution) close, which is the same convention used for MBGL/MFP/HONA; figures therefore differ from prior reports, which measured from a pre-distribution reference. † Honeywell’s pre-breakup comparison remains not meaningful (3-way breakup + 1-for-2 reverse split on Jun 29); HON is now tracked from its Jun 29 post-spin close in Table D. ‡ DuPont (DD) is shown split-adjusted for its 1-for-3 reverse split (Jun 24); raw quoted price $137.00.

Table B: SpinCo Price Performance & Post-Spin Low Recovery (Updated July 31, 2026)

Sort: by spinoff date, most recent first. Post-Spin Low = lowest closing price since the first regular-way trading day (daily OHLC). New lows set in July: HONA ($195.87, Jul 23, day 24), FDXF ($137.55, Jul 30, day 59), OCTV ($15.50, Jul 23, day 56 — undercutting its June trough), RNA ($11.18, Jul 29, day 151), plus first troughs for MBGL ($19.26, day 5) and MFP (day 0). NVRI Day-1 basis = Jun 2 regular-way close (holders separately received $15.00/sh cash).

Table C: SpinCo Performance Since Last Report (Jun 30 → Jul 31, 2026)

Sort: by % change since last report, best first. A month of violent dispersion: TRAX (+118.9%) on competitor read-through and Russell inclusion, against SOLS (-32.1%) on its $14.5B Element Solutions acquisition and Q (-19.7%) on valuation compression from its June all-time high. Eleven of seventeen comparable names fell. Two July completions (MBGL, MFP) have no prior-report comparison.

Table D: Parent Company Performance Post-Spinoff

Sort: by spinoff date, most recent first. * FDX, HXGBF, APLD and ANAB are restated this report to each parent’s first regular-way (ex-distribution) close, so these percentages are not comparable to prior editions; UL share-consolidation adjusted. † The pre-breakup Honeywell line is retained for continuity only — after the Aerospace spin and 1-for-2 reverse split there is no meaningful comparison, and HON is now measured from Jun 29. ‡ DD shown split-adjusted (1-for-3 reverse split Jun 24); raw quoted price $137.00.

Post-Spin Low Recovery — Pattern Analysis (updated)

• July was the month the framework got tested from both directions. The two June completions did exactly what the model predicts: HONA bottomed on day 24 ($195.87) and FDXF on day 59 ($137.55), both inside the forced-selling window this report has flagged repeatedly. But the month’s biggest movers were driven by company events, not structure — TRAX’s +118.9% came from clinical read-through and index inclusion, SOLS’s -32.1% from an acquisition announcement. Structure sets the entry window; events set the return.
• A near-perfect forced-selling case study: Midera (MFP). MFP’s low was its first close ($36.60, day 0) and it has run +31.0% in its first 18 sessions without a single piece of company news. That is the cleanest illustration in this report’s history of how conservatively spins can price on day one — and a reminder that the entry window can be measured in hours, not weeks.
• Mobility Global is following the textbook, not breaking it. MBGL’s day-5 trough ($19.26) and -3.8% position vs Day 1 are unremarkable for a large index-relevant spin. Every clean classic spin in the tracked set that bottomed inside 30 days is now positive vs its low; SOLS (+45.2%), Q (+78.4%) and VGNT (+53.5%) all traded through the same pattern.
• The retained-stake discount keeps proving itself. FDXF (19.9% parent stake) set a new low on day 59 and sits -6.0% vs Day 1, while the 100%-distributed spins from the same window recovered faster. MMED (≈90% parent stake) is the extreme version — +67.1% off its low but still below its IPO price four months on. This is the direct evidence behind trimming Comcast/NBCUniversal’s score for its up-to-19.9% retained interest.
• Two names still show no snap-back. RNA set another new low ($11.18, day 151) and sits +1.5% off it — pre-acquisition clinical spins remain the weakest structure in the taxonomy. VSNT has gone flat at -20.3% vs Day 1, neither recovering nor breaking down, with the $27–28 post-spin-low zone still the bearish trigger.

1. MIDERA FOOD PROCESSING (MFP) ⭐⭐⭐ B+ — HOLD (NEW — completed Jul 7)

• Current Price: $47.95 (Day-1 close $36.60 → +31.0% in its first 18 sessions). Post-spin low was the first close; no drawdown at all.
• The deal: Clean 1-for-1 tax-free spin from Middleby (record Jun 26, distribution effective Jul 6 at 12:01am ET, first regular-way trade Jul 7 on Nasdaq). 100% distributed — no retained stake. CEO Mark Salman, CFO Amy Campbell. Portfolio of 30+ food-processing brands, 100,000+ installed units globally.
• Thesis: The B+ grade rested on ≈18% adjusted EBITDA margins against an earlier “26%+” expectation — that has not changed, and the business has not reported as an independent company yet. What changed is the price: a +31% re-rating in three weeks has moved MFP from a discounted spin to a fully-valued one. Grade B+ maintained; rating moves to HOLD — the structural entry opportunity is gone, and the first standalone quarter is the next real information.
• Parent MIDD $133.58 (-4.1% since the spin) — the RemainCo commercial foodservice business has been the weaker half so far.
• Midera completes spin-off, begins trading

2. MOBILITY GLOBAL (MBGL) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ A — BUY ⬇️ (NEW — completed Jul 1; regraded from A+)

• Current Price: $20.38 (Day-1 close $21.19 → -3.8%); post-spin low $19.26 on day 5, now +5.8% off it.
• The deal: The cycle’s flagship separation. Clean 1-for-1 distribution (record Jun 15, distribution Jul 1), 100% distributed — S&P Global retains 0%, NYSE listed. 294,821,318 shares issued. ≈$2B of senior unsecured notes funded a ≈$1.9B one-time payment to S&P Global. Portfolio: CARFAX, automotiveMastermind, Polk Automotive Solutions, Market Scan. CEO Bill Eager, CFO Matt Calderone.

⚠️ Correction: the margin figure this report carried was wrong

Prior editions of this report described Mobility Global as having "≈60% EBITDA margins." The Investor Day financials (June 1, 2026 deck, slides 11 / 94 / 108–111) show that is materially overstated. The actual FY2025 figures:

Revenue growth was 8.6% (2024) and 8.5% (2025); the ≈$1.6B revenue figure previously cited was FY2024’s $1,613M, not the current year. The 2025 net-income bridge (slide 109) runs: net income $220M + net interest $13M + income taxes $106M + D&A $310M + SBC $22M + transaction costs $21M + severance $20M + legal recovery $(3)M + other $2M = adjusted EBITDA $711M. That $310M of D&A — largely amortization of intangibles from the legacy IHS Markit merger — is what separates a 40.6% EBITDA margin from a 12.6% net margin.

Valuation on the corrected figures (at $20.38)

Pro-forma standalone earnings: the $220M of carve-out net income carried only $13M of net interest. Standalone, ≈$2B of notes at an investment-grade coupon of ≈5.0–6.0% implies $100–120M of annual interest. Applying that to FY2025 EBIT of $339M (GAAP EBITDA $649M less D&A $310M) at the company’s guided 25–27% medium-term tax rate gives pro-forma net income of roughly $162–177M, or $0.55–$0.60 of EPS — before the $75–100M of one-time stand-up costs management expects over 12–18 months. Balance sheet: <2.5x target gross leverage, $500M undrawn revolver, ≈$200M starting cash, stated commitment to investment grade.

Dilution ceiling: an S-8 registers 46,000,000 shares for employee incentive plans — 15.6% of shares issued. No vesting period has elapsed, so treat this as a multi-year plan reserve rather than current dilution; if the entire reserve were eventually issued, P/FCF would rise from 13.0x to 15.1x. Note that S-8 filings at separation typically cover both the go-forward plan reserve and replacement awards converting from legacy S&P Global grants, so some portion likely already exists as unvested awards.

What shareholders should expect to receive

Management’s framework (slides 30 / 99) is 20–25% of GAAP net income as dividends, share repurchases beginning in 2027, and 75%+ of free cash flow returned annually in total.

The dividend will be small — roughly a 0.6–0.9% yield. Because GAAP net income is suppressed by $310M of non-cash amortization while free cash flow is $461M, a payout set against net income distributes only about 10% of the cash the business actually generates. The real capital return is the buyback: at 75% of a 2026E FCF of ≈$496–507M, total distributions run ≈$372–380M, or ≈$1.26–1.29 per share — a 6.2–6.3% total shareholder yield, of which roughly six-sevenths is repurchases.

Dividend discount model — and why it understates this business

Two-stage DDM: 10 years of stage-one growth at the guided revenue rate (7.5–10%), then a 3.5% terminal growth rate. Dividends only, on pro-forma net income at a 22.5% payout (D₁ = $0.129/share):

On the more generous carve-out net income basis (D₁ = $0.168/share) the same grid runs $3.17–$5.50.

Implied value from dividends alone: roughly $2.44–$5.50 per share, or 12–27% of the $20.38 price. That is not a sell signal — it is evidence that a dividend discount model is the wrong instrument for this security. A DDM values only what is paid out as dividends, and Mobility Global’s dividend is deliberately set to distribute about a tenth of its free cash flow.

The meaningful analogue is to discount total distributions (dividends + buybacks = 75% of FCF, D₁ ≈ $1.275/share), since a repurchase returns cash to continuing holders just as a dividend does:

Implied range $24–$42 per share against a $20.38 price — the current quote is below every cell in the grid, with the most conservative combination (10.5% discount rate, 7.5% growth, 3.5% terminal) still implying ≈$24. Caveats: the model assumes the 75% payout ratio holds, that repurchases are executed at prices below intrinsic value, and — per the instruction to grow distributions with revenue — that margins are flat, which is more conservative than management’s guided +50bps of annual expansion. It also excludes the $75–100M of one-time stand-up costs, a roughly $0.25/share drag spread over 12–18 months.

Capital allocation: leverage, buybacks, and the dividend-ETF question

The balance sheet starts offside its own target. $2B of notes against $711M of adjusted EBITDA is 2.81x gross leverage versus the stated <2.5x target (2.53x net). But this self-cures: at 8–11% adjusted EBITDA growth, gross leverage reaches 2.57x in 2026 and 2.35x in 2027 with zero debt repayment. Only ≈$222M of repayment would fix it immediately. Having committed 75%+ of FCF to shareholders, management has structurally allocated cash away from deleveraging — roughly 25% of FCF remains for debt reduction and M&A tuck-ins combined. Expect the company to grow into its target rather than pay down principal.

That is the right choice at this price. Repurchasing stock at 13.0x FCF earns a 7.7% return; retiring debt earns only the after-tax coupon, ≈4.1%. Five-year scenarios, exiting at 11x EV/adj. EBITDA:

Heavier deleveraging produces lower per-share value while the stock trades below intrinsic value — it is a risk-reduction choice, not a value-creation one, and only becomes preferable if the shares re-rate substantially or the investment-grade rating comes under pressure. The compounding effect is the point: sustained repurchases retire roughly 24% of the share count over five years (295M → ≈223M). Exit multiple dominates these outcomes — at 9x the range is $38.89–42.50, at 13x it is $56.61–65.50. Author’s estimates; assumes no recession, no competitive shock to CARFAX, and no large acquisition.

One caution on the dividend. The initiation is a positive signal, but it will not attract index-driven income buying: SCHD and VIG both require 10 consecutive years of dividends (or increases), the Dividend Aristocrats 25 years, and yield-screened funds such as VYM select above-average yielders — MBGL’s 0.6–0.9% is roughly half the S&P 500’s. Earliest plausible eligibility for the major dividend ETFs is the mid-2030s. The mechanical index demand that mattered for this stock already occurred at separation. A more durable tailwind is structural: because the payout is set as a percentage of GAAP net income, and net income is suppressed by $310M of acquired-intangible amortization that rolls off over time, the dividend should grow faster than free cash flow without the business improving at all.

Grade change: A+ (4.60) → A (4.35)

Grade Change: Downgraded A+ (4.60) → A (4.35). The trigger is a data correction, not a business deterioration — the Financial Profile dimension had been scored 5 on a margin figure (≈60%) that the Investor Day financials do not support. At an actual 40.6% adjusted EBITDA margin the business still clears the methodology’s “30%+ margins” test for a 5, but it fails the “double-digit growth” test (7.5–10% guided) and starts levered near its own 2.5x target, which places it squarely in the 4 band. Nothing about the competitive position, management or acquisition appeal changed.

Recommendation: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ BUY. The regrade lowers the label, not the conclusion. At 11.0x EV/EBITDA, 13.0x FCF and a 7.7% FCF yield — with a 6.2%+ total shareholder yield and a total-distribution model implying $24–42 — the stock is attractively priced for a business with CARFAX’s competitive position. It is simply a reasonably priced compounder rather than the extraordinary mispricing the A+ implied.

• Next catalyst: ⚠️ First standalone quarterly results on August 7, 2026 (before market open; call at 8:00am ET with CEO Bill Eager and CFO Matt Calderone). This is the first hard data on standalone margins, the actual interest expense on the new notes, stand-up cost run-rate, and any initial dividend declaration — all of which will firm up the estimates above in the next report.
• Parent SPGI $411.93 (-0.7% since the spin) — the clean, zero-retained-stake structure means no overhang on either side.
• Mobility Global completes separation from S&P Global
• Mobility Global 2026 Investor Day presentation (June 1, 2026)
• SEC — Separation and Distribution Agreement (Ex. 2.1), 294,821,318 shares issued
• SEC — Form S-8, 46,000,000 shares registered for incentive plans
• Mobility Global to announce Q2 2026 results on August 7, 2026

3. HONEYWELL AEROSPACE (HONA) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ A — STRONG BUY

• Current Price: $206.74 (-6.5% in July; -6.1% vs the $220.19 Day-1 close). Set its post-spin low at $195.87 on July 23 (day 24) — squarely inside the classic forced-selling window — and has recovered +5.5% off it.
• The setup: ≈317M shares, ≈$65B market cap at the current price, S&P 500 member, ≈$17.4B revenue, $37B backlog, 100% distributed with no retained stake. CEO Jim Currier. Analyst price targets cluster around $255–260, well above the current quote.
• Thesis: The day-24 trough is the textbook signal this report has been waiting for. The largest pure-play aerospace supplier is now trading ≈6% below its first close with index membership secured and no parent overhang. The one caveat to underwrite is the balance sheet — ≈$15.8B of long-term debt and negative book equity from the separation financing. Grade A maintained; STRONG BUY into the post-trough window. First standalone Q2 results land August 5 — the next real test.
• Parent Honeywell Technologies (HON) $243.05, +6.7% since the Jun 29 baseline — the automation RemainCo has outperformed the SpinCo so far.

4. FEDEX FREIGHT (FDXF) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ A- — BUY

• Current Price: $140.53 (-6.9% in July; -6.0% vs the $149.53 Day-1 close). Set a new post-spin low of $137.55 on July 30 (day 59) — a late trough, and the clearest evidence yet of the retained-stake drag.
• The deal: 1 FDXF per 2 FDX; 80.1% distributed, FedEx retains 19.9% (to be disposed within 24 months). CEO John A. Smith; Chairman R. Brad Martin.
• Thesis: The #1 US LTL franchise is a genuinely high-quality asset, and the A- grade was set with the ≈19.9% overhang explicitly priced in. Two months of trading have confirmed that call: a soft debut, no recovery, and a fresh low on day 59 while cleanly-distributed peers bottomed inside four weeks. The overhang resolves only as FedEx disposes of its stake. Grade A- maintained — BUY, but expect the disposal schedule, not the operating results, to set the timing of the re-rating. Parent FDX $307.40 (-9.2% since the spin).

5. FIRST TRACKS BIOTHERAPEUTICS (TRAX) ⚠️ — SPECULATIVE (the month’s outlier)

• Current Price: $44.04 (+118.9% in July — from $20.12, peaking at an all-time closing high of $47.78 on July 30 before easing into month-end); now +136.8% vs the $18.60 Day-1 close and +187.5% off its June 3 low ($15.32).
• What happened: Two compounding catalysts. First, positive read-through from a competitor’s Phase 1b vitiligo data validating the CD122 pathway — the same mechanism as First Tracks’ lead candidate ANB033. Second, inclusion in multiple Russell indexes in late June, which forced institutional buying into a thin float.
• Assessment: This is a pre-revenue, cash-burning clinical-stage biotech that has more than doubled on a competitor’s data and index mechanics — not on its own trial results. The heavy analyst Buy coverage (UBS $45, Leerink $46, Barclays $40) that looked aspirational at $16 is now roughly at the market. SPECULATIVE maintained, but the character of the risk has inverted: this is no longer a bottom-fishing entry, it is a position to trim into strength ahead of ANB033’s own readouts. RemainCo ANAB $53.36 (-20.9% in July) gave back its June gains.

6. SOLSTICE ADVANCED MATERIALS (SOLS) ⭐⭐⭐ — HOLD ⬇️ (downgraded from BUY)

• Current Price: $60.17 (-32.1% in July — the worst monthly performance in the tracked set); still +20.2% vs Day 1 and +45.2% off its post-spin low, but far below the $88.60 it held a month ago.
• What happened: On July 30, alongside Q2 results, Solstice announced a $14.5B cash-and-stock acquisition of Element Solutions and raised FY 2026 guidance (revenue to $4.13–4.19B from $3.9–4.1B; adjusted EBITDA to $1.04–1.06B from $975M–1.03B). The market rejected the exchange ratio, not the operating results — shares fell ≈15% on the announcement after an earlier ≈12–14% decline on July 6.
• Assessment: Downgraded ⭐⭐⭐⭐ BUY → ⭐⭐⭐ HOLD. This is a thesis change, not a drawdown to buy. The security we graded was a clean, high-margin specialty-materials pure-play that had compounded +77% off its spin; what is being created is a leveraged acquirer integrating a $14.5B target nine months after becoming independent. The operating business is performing — guidance went up — but the capital-allocation profile, pro-forma leverage and integration risk all need to be re-underwritten before the BUY returns. Watch the deal terms and financing structure.

7. QNITY ELECTRONICS (Q) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ — BUY MAINTAINED

• Current Price: $131.18 (-19.7% in July); +24.9% vs Day 1, +78.4% off its post-spin low ($73.54, day 21). The stock peaked at an all-time closing high of $175.64 on June 22 and has compressed since.
• Assessment: A valuation reset, not a fundamental one. Q1 delivered EPS of $1.08 against a $0.58 consensus with revenue +18% to $1.3B, and the AI/advanced-packaging materials narrative — rising materials intensity as chip architectures move from transistor scaling to vertical stacking — is unchanged. At ≈31x forward earnings before the drawdown, the stock was priced for perfection; RBC trimmed its price target during the month. BUY maintained. Q2 results August 4 are the immediate catalyst. (Parent DuPont: $137.00 raw, $45.67 split-adjusted, +32.8% since the spin.)
• Note the divergence worth watching: DD (+32.8%) has now outperformed its own SpinCo (+24.9%) since the November separation — an unusual outcome in this dataset and a reminder that RemainCos are not automatically the inferior half.

8. VERSIGENT (VGNT) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ — BUY

• Current Price: $41.35 (-1.6% in July); +48.5% vs Day 1, +53.5% off its day-6 low ($26.94). A quiet, orderly month after June’s profit-taking — the thesis is doing exactly what a successful clean spin should.
• RemainCo APTV $56.47 (-8.0% in July, -27.3% since the spin) remains the worst-performing tracked parent. The SpinCo/RemainCo divergence here (+48.5% vs -27.3%) is the widest in the dataset and the clearest validation of the “the spun business was the good business” pattern. BUY maintained.

9. STARZ (STRZ) & LIONSGATE STUDIOS (LION) — PARENT SPLIT WINNERS

• STRZ: $26.02 (-9.8% in July, off its late-June all-time high); +132.3% from reference, +200.8% off its post-spin low ($8.65, day 274). Still the strongest total return in the tracked set despite the pullback. HOLD — after a triple, this is a position to manage rather than add to.
• LION: $13.28 (-13.3% in July); +62.9% from reference, +137.6% off its low ($5.59, day 61). The July decline tracked the broader media de-rating rather than company news; the fiscal Q4 beat, 12-year-high OIBDA and $1.6B net debt from last cycle remain the operating baseline. BUY.

10. OCTAVE INTELLIGENCE (OCTV) ⭐⭐⭐ — HOLD (accumulating off the trough)

• Current Price: $18.24 (+11.9% in July — the third-best monthly performer); -10.4% vs the ≈$20.35 Day-1 open. Undercut its June trough with a new post-spin low of $15.50 on July 23 (day 56), then rallied +17.7% off it into month-end.
• Assessment: This is the forced-selling window resolving in real time. A high-quality asset-lifecycle software business (≈EUR 1.45B revenue, ≈31% adjusted operating margin, Guggenheim Buy with a $30 target) that spent eight weeks finding its clearing price and has now turned. HOLD moving toward BUY — a confirmed higher low would complete the pattern. Parent Hexagon (HXGBF) $9.87, +9.7% since the spin.

11. MINIMED (MMED) ⚠️ — SPECULATIVE

• Current Price: $18.05 (+20.7% in July); -5.2% vs the $19.05 open / -9.8% vs the $20 IPO — nearly back to its debut level, and +67.1% off its May low ($10.80, day 70).
• What drove it: MiniMed Flex became available to Medicare and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, materially widening the addressable population toward older adults with diabetes. Analyst sentiment has followed — 12 analysts average a Strong Buy with a ≈$20.91 target.
• Assessment: A genuine operating catalyst, and the recovery from -43% to -10% vs the IPO price is impressive. But Medtronic still owns ≈90.03%, and the final split-off (targeted year-end 2026) will determine the real float and the tax treatment for exchanging holders. SPECULATIVE maintained until that structure is announced — the overhang, not the product, is the binding constraint. Parent MDT $85.39 (+9.2% in July).

12. NEW ENVIRI (NVRI) ⭐⭐⭐ B — HOLD

• Current Price: $22.18 (+1.0% in July); +15.5% vs the Jun 2 regular-way close ($19.20), plus the $15.00/share cash holders received separately. +25.0% off its day-1 low ($17.75).
• Steady consolidation after June’s debut pop. The spin + paired-sale structure (Clean Earth → Veolia for $3.04B; Harsco Environmental + Rail spun as New Enviri) left a deleveraged industrial-services and rail pure-play. The taxable structure and cyclical end-markets keep it at B — HOLD, but the cash component materially de-risked the outcome.

13. JANUS LIVING (JAN) ⭐⭐⭐ — BUY

• Current Price: $30.21 (+5.1% in July); +28.0% vs Day 1 / +51.1% vs the $20 IPO; a fresh all-time high, +32.0% off its day-7 low. The exception that proves the rule on carve-outs — a REIT structure and senior-housing demand have let JAN trade like a clean spin despite Healthpeak retaining majority control. Parent DOC $21.83 (+9.1%). BUY.

14. MAGNUM ICE CREAM (MICC) ⭐⭐⭐ — HOLD

• Current Price: $18.61 (+6.9% in July); +24.9% vs Day 1, +42.5% off its day-141 low ($13.06). The slowest-to-bottom of the clean classic spins has quietly become one of the steadier compounders — up seven months from its April trough. Parent UL $63.41 (+2.6%). HOLD, with the recovery now well established.

15. MILLROSE PROPERTIES (MRP) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ — BUY

• Current Price: $27.98 (-6.9% in July); +19.1% vs Day 1, +31.9% off its post-spin low ($21.22, day 31). July’s decline tracked homebuilder weakness — parent LEN fell to $82.35 (-9.0% in July, -31.3% since the spin), the weakest tracked parent over a full cycle. Millrose’s land-bank REIT model is deliberately insulated from that cycle (total assets $9.6B, diversifying beyond Lennar), and the divergence between MRP +19.1% and LEN -31.3% is the point of the structure. BUY.

16. VERSANT (VSNT) ⭐⭐⭐ — HOLD

• Current Price: $35.99 (-0.1% in July — flat after June’s -16.5% drop); -20.3% vs Day 1, +31.3% off its post-spin low ($27.42, day 38).
• The stock stopped falling but has not recovered. The cable-networks pure-play remains exposed to linear-TV secular decline, and it now carries added significance as the read-across for Comcast’s much larger NBCUniversal spin — the market’s treatment of VSNT is the best available proxy for how it will price Comcast media assets. HOLD; a break of the $27–28 post-spin-low zone remains the bearish trigger. Parent CMCSA $23.96 (-13.8%).

17. ATRIUM THERAPEUTICS (RNA) ⚠️ — SPECULATIVE

• Current Price: $11.35 (-15.6% in July); -23.1% vs Day 1. Set another new post-spin low of $11.18 on July 29 (day 151) and sits just +1.5% off it — the only tracked name with essentially no recovery from its trough.
• Five months of continuous grinding lower confirms the pattern for pre-acquisition carve-outs: assets the acquirer did not want, spun to holders with no natural buyer base and long-dated clinical catalysts. Lead programs ATR-1072 (IND H2 2026) and ATR-1086 (IND 2027) are the only things that will change this. SPECULATIVE — the weakest structure in the taxonomy.

18. CHRONOSCALE (CHRN) ⚠️ — SPECULATIVE

• Current Price: $22.03 (-0.9% in July); +66.6% vs its May 5 debut close ($13.22), which remains its post-spin low.
• Flat month after June’s +21% move. The RMT structure (Applied Digital contributed its cloud business to EKSO Bionics, renamed ChronoScale; APLD retains ≈97%) leaves a float so thin that price action is dominated by supply, not fundamentals. Parent APLD $27.39 (-31.3% since the spin) — the parent has now lost nearly a third of its value while the SpinCo gained two-thirds, an extreme divergence that says more about float mechanics than about either business. SPECULATIVE.

Part 4: OUTLOOK & UPCOMING CATALYST CALENDAR

August 2026:

• ⚠️ August 3: ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) distribution — record date already passed (Jul 20); August 4: first regular-way NYSE trading (1 ADIG per 2 REZI)
• August 3: ABVC BioPharma → BioKey partial distribution (micro-cap)
• August 4: Qnity (Q) Q2 results — first test after a -19.7% month
• August 5: Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) first standalone Q2 results; UK CMA consultation responses due on Unilever/McCormick
• August 6: Keurig Dr Pepper Q2 results — watch for any Global Coffee CEO update
• ⚠️ August 7: Mobility Global (MBGL) first standalone quarterly results (before open; 8:00am ET call) — the first hard read on standalone margins, actual interest expense on the ≈$2B notes, stand-up cost run-rate and any initial dividend declaration
• Post-spin forced-selling windows to watch for entry: MBGL (day ≈25), HONA (post day-24 trough), OCTV (post day-56 trough). ADIG is deliberately excluded — at 6.6% margins and 3.14x leverage the post-spin dip is not automatically an entry; watch price discovery and the first standalone quarter instead

H2 2026:

• October 1: Corteva → Vylor seed spin (record date expected ≈September)
• Modine/Gentherm Performance Tech RMT close (early Q4, pending S-4/Form 10 effectiveness and Gentherm vote)
• Barrick North American Barrick IPO (year-end; only 10–15% floated)
• Medtronic MiniMed full split-off (year-end)
• New Fortress Energy → BrazilCo/CoreCo (Q3, legal path now cleared)
• Adaptive Biotechnologies separation-path decision (by year-end)
• Flex SpinCo name reveal (September)

2027:

• January 4: KBR → Trinzic distribution (firm date)
• Q1: Eaton Mobility + Dana RMT close; Flex Power & Cloud Infrastructure; Genuine Parts Global Industrial; International Paper EMEA; Keurig Dr Pepper Global Coffee (early 2027)
• Mid: Comcast/NBCUniversal; Unilever/McCormick close; L3Harris Missile Solutions IPO (postponed from H2 2026)
• Q2–Q3: Textron Industrial (sale or spin)
• H2: McKesson Medical-Surgical; J&J DePuy Synthes (if a spin); HF Sinclair Lubricants & Specialties

Watch items / status changes this cycle:

• ⚠️ L3Harris MSL IPO postponed to mid-2027 (grade B → B-)
• ⚠️ KDP Global Coffee CEO-designate departed; search reopened (grade B+ → B)
• ⚠️ J&J DePuy spin-vs-sale decision overdue; timing drifting to H2 2027
• ⚠️ SOLS turning acquirer ($14.5B Element Solutions) — completed-spin rating cut to HOLD
• ⬇️ MBGL regraded A+ → A on a corrected EBITDA margin (40.6% actual vs ≈60% previously carried); still a BUY
• 🔄 Eaton → Mobility structure corrected to an RMT with Dana
• ⬆️ KBR → Trinzic upgraded to B+ on named leadership and a firm January 4, 2027 date
• ⬇️ Resideo → ADIG downgraded B+ → B after the amended Form 10 disclosed 6.6% margins, a $261M net loss, ≈$1.0B of separation debt and the CD&R preferred
• ⚠️ Corteva/Vylor A- flagged provisional — Form 10 still preliminary, debt quantum and ratio blank with eight weeks to the October 1 target
• 🆕 HF Sinclair → Lubricants & Specialties (announced Jul 28) — the month’s significant new separation

APPENDIX A: COMPLETE SPINOFF LIST (July 2026)

Sort: by investment grade (highest first), matching the Part 2 ranking; ungraded micro-caps last.

Completed / now-trading spinoffs and their full post-spin performance (including low-recovery analysis) are tracked in Part 3, Tables A–D — not duplicated here.

Completed This Cycle (moved to Part 3): Mobility Global (MBGL, Jul 1), Midera Food Processing (MFP, Jul 7).

Removed / Reclassified / Paused / Canceled:

• ⚠️ Kraft Heinz → 2-way split: Paused indefinitely — shelved (prior)
• ⚠️ Teleflex → NewCo: Converted to outright sales (≈$2.03B) — removed (prior)
• ABB → ABB Robotics: SoftBank sale ($5.375B) — removed (prior)
• WBD → Discovery Global: Shelved — Paramount acquiring WBD (prior)
• Topgolf Callaway: Converted to a sale (prior)
• CSL Seqirus: Postponed indefinitely (prior)
• Trump Media → Truth Social: Paused June 10, 2026
• Microsoft → Xbox: Under review / rumor only — not tracked
• Non-US separations monitored but not individually tracked: SoftBank → Roze, Associated British Foods → Primark, Siemens Energy → Industrial Turbines, Baidu → Kunlunxin, Jollibee → International, Evotec → Just Biologics, Alibaba (HKEX-approved)

APPENDIX B: SPINOFF STRUCTURE REFERENCE

Not all corporate spinoffs are structured the same way. The sections above use short tags to label each transaction by its primary legal/mechanical structure, with an optional set of “orthogonal features” that can modify any primary structure. This appendix defines those tags.

Primary Structures (mutually exclusive — the core mechanic)

Orthogonal Features (can apply to any primary structure; multiple possible)

Report Generated: July 31, 2026 Pricing: All stock prices as of July 31, 2026 close (verified daily data via yfinance). Next Update Recommended: Late August / early September 2026 (after the ADI Global separation August 3-4, the August earnings cluster — Q on Aug 4, HONA on Aug 5, KDP on Aug 6, MBGL on Aug 7 — and the first full month of MBGL/MFP trading). Mobility Global’s first standalone print is the single highest-value data point for the next edition: it will replace the pro-forma interest, tax and stand-up-cost estimates used in this report’s Part 3 §2 with actuals, and may bring the first dividend declaration. Methodology: Built primarily from company IR websites, SEC filings (Form 10, 8-K, S-1, S-4, 10-Q, DEF 14A), press releases, and financial news, supplemented by “upcoming spinoffs” searches and backward-looking searches for announcements 24-36 months ago. The prior report (June 30, 2026) is the baseline. Community trackers (The Zen of Investing, Inside Arbitrage, StockSpinoffs.com) used as secondary corroboration and completeness checks — this cycle they surfaced the Eaton/Dana RMT structure correction and the HF Sinclair, Jet.AI, Click Holdings and Spectrum Brands additions. Completed-spinoff prices and post-spin lows computed from verified daily OHLC (yfinance). The Investment Scorecard applies the five-dimension weighted framework (Financial 25%, Competitive 25%, Strategic 20%, Management 20%, Acquisition 10%; 1-5 per dimension) mapped to letter grades per the Spinoff Investment Analysis Skill methodology. Source: Spinoff Investment Analysis Skill v4.0

SOURCES

Completed Spinoffs — July 2026

• Mobility Global completes separation from S&P Global, begins NYSE trading
• Midera Food Processing completes spin-off, begins trading
• Middleby completes spin-off of Midera Food Processing

Upcoming Spinoffs — Primary Sources

• Resideo — Board sets record date (Jul 20) and Aug 3 distribution for ADI Global
• Corteva — Strong 1H 2026, raised FY outlook, on track for October 1 separation
• KBR — Names CEO and CFO of Mission Technology Solutions spin-off
• SEC — Keurig Dr Pepper 8-K, coffee leadership transition
• Breaking Defense — L3Harris postpones missile unit IPO until mid-2027
• BusinessWire — HF Sinclair announces strategic transformation including separation of Lubricants & Specialties
• Eaton — Mobility Group to combine with Dana in a Reverse Morris Trust
• Barrick — Advances IPO of North American gold assets, announces executive appointments
• Kirkland & Ellis — SDNY recognizes New Fortress Energy’s UK restructuring plans (Jul 14)
• SEC — Comcast Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026
• StockTitan — Gentherm/Modine SpinCo merger status and Q2 2026 metrics
• Adaptive Biotechnologies — Plan to separate MRD and Immune Medicine businesses

Completed-Spinoff Developments

• Mobility Global — 2026 Investor Day presentation (financial profile, capital allocation)
• SEC — Mobility Global Separation and Distribution Agreement (Ex. 2.1): 294,821,318 shares issued
• SEC — Mobility Global Form S-8: 46,000,000 shares registered for incentive plans
• BusinessWire — Mobility Global to announce Q2 2026 results on August 7, 2026
• Seeking Alpha — Solstice combining with Element Solutions ($14.5B)
• StockTitan — Honeywell Aerospace Q2 financial results set for August 5
• StockTitan — Qnity schedules Q2 2026 earnings release (August 4)
• Seeking Alpha — MiniMed gains amid bullish analyst views

Online Community Corroborative Sources

• The Zen of Investing - Upcoming Spinoffs
• Inside Arbitrage - Spinoffs
• StockSpinoffs.com - Upcoming Spinoffs

DISCLAIMER

This report is for informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Spinoff transactions are subject to change, delay, or cancellation — this cycle alone saw one IPO postponed by twelve months (L3Harris Missile Solutions), one SpinCo lose its designated CEO before separation (KDP Global Coffee), and one long-guided decision pass its deadline without resolution (J&J DePuy Synthes). Stock prices referenced are as of the July 31, 2026 close (verified daily data via yfinance). Where a parent has undergone a corporate action that distorts comparison (Honeywell’s 3-way breakup + 1-for-2 reverse split; DuPont’s 1-for-3 reverse split), this is footnoted and the affected figures are shown split-adjusted or marked “n/m.” Parent baselines for FDX, HXGBF, APLD and ANAB were restated this report to each parent’s first regular-way (ex-distribution) close; those percentages are not comparable to the figures shown in prior reports. Mobility Global’s financial profile was corrected in this edition: prior reports described “≈60% EBITDA margins,” whereas the company’s Investor Day financials show a 40.6% FY2025 adjusted EBITDA margin on $1,750M of revenue — the grade was reduced from A+ to A accordingly, and figures for this name in reports before July 31, 2026 should not be relied upon. The dividend estimates and dividend discount models in Part 3 §2 are the author’s calculations from company-guided payout policy, not company guidance; they rest on pro-forma interest and tax assumptions that the August 7 earnings release will supersede. A dividend discount model captures only distributions and is a poor primary valuation tool for a company that returns most of its cash through repurchases. Newly announced transactions (HF Sinclair, Jet.AI, Click Holdings) are early-stage and their terms may change as Form 10 filings and standalone financials emerge. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions. Past spinoff performance does not guarantee future results.