Mobility Global

Snapshot Across Reports

Executive Summary

Management Team

Business Analysis & Competitive Dynamics

Mobility Global is the automotive data and technology division of S&P Global, anchored by its crown jewel brand CARFAX — the dominant player in used-vehicle history reports with a near-monopoly position built on decades of proprietary vehicle data that is virtually impossible to replicate. The business also includes automotiveMastermind (dealer marketing), Polk Automotive Solutions (registration and loyalty analytics), and Market Scan (real-time payment and incentive data).

The company operates in a $30B+ total addressable market across used vehicle data, new vehicle sales tools, and strategic planning analytics. Core competitive advantages include the CARFAX data moat (the largest vehicle history database in North America), deeply embedded dealer workflows, and high switching costs — dealers and consumers rely on CARFAX as the standard for vehicle transparency.

Financial profile is exceptional: 60% EBITDA margins rank among the highest in the data/analytics sector, with 8% revenue growth in a mature automotive market. The EV transition creates new growth vectors — battery health data, charging history, and EV-specific valuation models — that extend the CARFAX franchise into new revenue streams. International expansion (CARFAX is primarily US/Canada today) represents another untapped growth lever.

Key risks include cyclical automotive market exposure, the potential for large dealer groups and OEMs to build competing data platforms, and smaller standalone scale ($1.6B revenue) which may limit bargaining power with large customers. However, the data moat and brand strength substantially mitigate these risks.

Acquisition Analysis

Mobility Global is widely viewed as a highly attractive acquisition target, with a high probability of takeout within 12-24 months post-spinoff. Standalone valuation is estimated at 15-20x EBITDA ($14-19B), with a 30-50% acquisition premium implying a $18-28B+ takeout price.

Correction (May 31, 2026): Prior reports cited Cox Automotive as the most likely acquirer. That specific speculation is unsubstantiated — it appears to stem from name confusion with Cox’s own internal “Mobility” division. The underlying acquisition appeal of the CARFAX data asset is unchanged; the most credible buyers are now PE data specialists and large dealer groups.

Potential Acquirers:

Changes & Developments

In Depth Analysis

April 28, 2026 deep-dive, with key facts refreshed for the May 31, 2026 report (debt structure, catalysts, and the Cox acquirer retraction).

Competitive Dynamics

1. Product segments and competitors

✅ Mobility Global operates across four product lines, each with a distinct competitive landscape:

2. Market concentration

✅ Concentrated (near-monopoly) in core CARFAX business. CARFAX dominates consumer-facing vehicle history reports with estimated 80-90%+ market share in the US. Experian’s AutoCheck is the only meaningful competitor but has never achieved comparable consumer brand recognition or dealer adoption.

⚠️ Oligopolistic in the broader automotive data market. Dealer marketing, analytics, and F&I tools are contested by a handful of major players (Cox Automotive, Solera, Cars.com, J.D. Power) but no single dominant winner. Mobility Global’s advantage is having multiple products that cross-sell within the same dealership.

⚠️ Fragmented in emerging areas. EV data (battery health, charging history), connected car analytics, and AI-powered valuation tools are nascent markets with no established leader yet — representing both opportunity and competitive uncertainty.

3. Moats and weak spots

✅ Strongest moat: CARFAX data moat. Decades of accumulated vehicle history records (accidents, service, ownership, recalls) from insurance companies, DMVs, service shops, and auctions. This dataset is effectively impossible to replicate from scratch — a new entrant would need 20+ years of data collection agreements.

✅ Strong moat: Dealer workflow embedding. CARFAX is deeply integrated into dealer management systems (DMS). Dealers use CARFAX reports as part of their standard vehicle appraisal and sales process. Switching costs are high because changing tools disrupts daily operations.

⚠️ Moderate moat: Polk data assets. Registration and loyalty data is valuable but faces competition from IHS Markit (which was part of S&P Global pre-merger — unclear how this data relationship works post-spin) and J.D. Power.

⚠️ Weak spot: Limited international presence. CARFAX operates primarily in the US and Canada. European and Asian vehicle history markets are served by different providers (e.g., HPI in the UK, Carvertical in Europe). International expansion is an opportunity but requires building new data relationships from scratch in each market.

❓ Weak spot: OEM direct data risk. As automakers build connected car platforms (GM OnStar, Ford SYNC, Tesla), they collect real-time vehicle data directly. Over time, OEMs could potentially bypass CARFAX by offering their own history/condition reports. However, CARFAX aggregates data across all brands — a single-OEM report can’t match cross-brand coverage.

4. Head-to-head vs closest competitor: Cox Automotive

⚠️ Cox Automotive is the most comparable company — a private automotive data/marketplace conglomerate owned by Cox Enterprises.

Key insight: These two companies are complementary, not directly competitive in most segments. CARFAX does vehicle history; Cox does marketplace/pricing/auctions. (Note: prior reports speculated that this complementarity made Cox a likely acquirer of Mobility Global; the May 31, 2026 report retracted that as unsubstantiated name-confusion. The competitive complementarity stands; the acquisition thesis does not.)

5. Crown jewel: CARFAX

✅ CARFAX is the crown jewel and the primary reason for the A+ rating.

• Data moat: Proprietary database of vehicle history records built over 40+ years (founded 1984)
• Source network: Data from 130,000+ sources including insurance companies, DMVs, service departments, auctions, fire departments, and fleet operators
• Consumer recognition: CARFAX is effectively a verb — “has it been CARFAX’d?” Brand awareness estimated at 90%+ among US car buyers
• Dealer standard: Used by virtually every franchise dealer in North America as part of standard vehicle appraisal and sales process
• Recurring revenue: Dealers pay subscription fees for unlimited reports; consumers pay per report or subscribe
• ⚠️ Network effects: More data sources → more accurate reports → more consumer trust → more dealer adoption → more data sources. This flywheel has been compounding for decades.

6. Total addressable market

✅ S&P Global has cited a $30B+ TAM for the automotive data market. This includes:

• Used vehicle data and transparency tools
• New vehicle sales tools and dealer marketing
• Automotive analytics, forecasting, and consulting
• F&I (finance and insurance) technology
• ⚠️ Emerging: EV battery data, connected car analytics, autonomous vehicle data services

⚠️ TAM growth rate estimated at 5-8% annually, driven by:

• Increasing used vehicle transaction volumes
• Digital transformation of dealership operations
• EV transition creating new data needs
• Growing consumer demand for vehicle transparency

7. Geographic competitive map

✅ North America: CARFAX is dominant. The US and Canada represent the vast majority of current revenue.

⚠️ Europe: Fragmented market. HPI (UK), Carvertical (pan-European), ADAC (Germany), and various national services compete. No single dominant player. CARFAX has limited presence.

⚠️ Asia-Pacific: Even more fragmented. Market for vehicle history data is less mature. OEMs and government registries play a larger role.

❓ International expansion potential: Significant long-term opportunity, but requires building data source networks country-by-country. Could accelerate via acquisition of local players.

Financials & Valuation

1. Operating margins vs peers

⚠️ Direct public peers are scarce — most automotive data companies are private divisions or were acquired. Closest comparisons are to other high-margin data/analytics businesses:

Key insight: Mobility Global’s 60% EBITDA margin is exceptional even among premium data businesses. Verisk is the closest margin comp and trades at 25-30x EBITDA. The margin premium reflects CARFAX’s near-monopoly pricing power and asset-light model.

2. Peer financial comparison

⚠️ Limited by lack of direct public peers. Best available comparison using Verisk (VRSK) and CoStar (CSGP) as proxies for high-quality data businesses:

✅ Balance sheet: Now disclosed. Mobility Global’s Form 10 registration statement (the correct SEC form for a spinoff distribution, vs. an S-1 for a cash IPO) was filed publicly May 7, 2026. The company carries ~$2B senior notes (~2x EBITDA, <2.5x gross leverage target) with ~$150M cash and a $500M undrawn revolver — see the Debt structure section below.

❓ Capital efficiency (ROIC, asset turnover): Cannot assess until standalone financials are disclosed.

3. Implied standalone valuation

⚠️ Based on peer multiples and margin profile:

4. Debt structure

✅ Confirmed (Form 10 public May 7 + May 12 Investor Day). Mobility Global launched ~$2B senior unsecured notes, funding a one-time cash payment of up to ~$1.95B to S&P Global at separation. Target capital structure: under 2.5x gross leverage, ~$150M cash on hand, and a $500M undrawn revolver. Investment-grade credit rating targeted (confirmed).

⚠️ At ~$2B debt on ~$960M EBITDA, leverage of ~2x is moderate and sits within the stated <2.5x ceiling — leaving ample room for the 75%+ FCF return framework and bolt-on M&A. This is notably lighter than the ~3.0x Honeywell loaded onto Honeywell Aerospace.

5. Post-interest free cash flow

❓ Cannot calculate until debt structure is known. Framework for when Form 10 is public:

• EBITDA: ~$960M
• Less: estimated capex (~$50-100M for asset-light data business)
• Less: interest expense (depends on debt load)
• Less: taxes
• = Free cash flow to equity

⚠️ If debt is ~$2.5B at ~5% coupon: interest ~$125M, pre-tax FCF ~$735-810M. At a $21B equity value, FCF yield ~3.5-4.0%.

6. Valuation framework

⚠️ Given the unknowns, a simplified framework:

• Attractive: Below 18x EBITDA (~$17B EV). Unlikely unless market sells off post-spin (forced selling by index funds).
• Fair: 20-24x EBITDA ($19-23B EV). Reflects high margins but small scale and auto cyclicality.
• Expensive: Above 28x EBITDA ($27B+ EV). Only justified if acquisition is imminent.

7. Dividend strategy

❓ Unknown. No guidance on dividend policy. Possible scenarios:

• ⚠️ Likely: Modest initial dividend (1-2% yield) to attract income-oriented investors, with priority on debt paydown
• ⚠️ Possible: No dividend initially, prioritizing debt reduction and M&A optionality
• ❓ Unlikely: High dividend payout — would limit strategic flexibility and signal limited growth ambitions

Spinoff Deep Dive

1. Prior spins from same parent

✅ This is S&P Global’s first major spinoff. S&P Global was itself formed from the McGraw-Hill spin in 2013 (when McGraw-Hill Education was separated from McGraw-Hill Financial, which became S&P Global). However, the Mobility separation is structurally different — it’s a carve-out of a business unit, not a split of the whole company.

⚠️ The closest precedent is the IHS Markit merger (2022), where S&P Global acquired IHS Markit for $44B and has been integrating/rationalizing overlapping businesses. Spinning off Mobility may partly be about simplifying the post-merger portfolio.

2. Parent motives and capital allocation

✅ Primary motive: Sharpen S&P Global’s identity as a pure-play financial markets data company (ratings, indices, commodities, market intelligence). Mobility’s automotive focus is strategically distinct and dilutes the financial-data narrative.

⚠️ Secondary motive: Unlock conglomerate discount. S&P Global trades at ~25-28x EBITDA; if Mobility trades at a similar or higher multiple separately, total shareholder value increases.

⚠️ Capital allocation signal: The fact that S&P is spinning off (not selling) suggests they believe Mobility is worth more as a public standalone than in a private sale. A sale would have been faster and simpler if the goal was just to exit.

3. RemainCo (S&P Global post-spin)

✅ S&P Global retains its core financial markets businesses:

• S&P Global Ratings: One of the “Big Three” credit rating agencies (with Moody’s and Fitch). Regulatory moat, high margins.
• S&P Dow Jones Indices: Passive investing drives AUM-linked revenue (S&P 500 index licensing). Very high margins.
• S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts): Energy/commodity pricing benchmarks. Regulatory quasi-moat.
• S&P Global Market Intelligence: Financial data terminals, analytics. Competes with Bloomberg, Refinitiv.

⚠️ RemainCo is arguably a higher-quality business than SpinCo in terms of regulatory moats (ratings) and secular growth (indices/passive investing). However, Mobility Global has higher EBITDA margins and a stronger near-monopoly position in its niche.

4. Potential acquirers (detailed)

✅ See Executive Summary for acquirer table. Additional detail:

Correction (May 31, 2026): The Cox Automotive thesis is retracted — the May 31 report flagged it as unsubstantiated name-confusion with Cox’s own “Mobility” division. The probability previously assigned to Cox is redistributed to the PE path and “remains independent.” The PE consortium is now the most credible acquirer.

5. Acquisition probability and premium

⚠️ Estimated ~70-80% probability of takeout within 24 months post-spinoff. The May 31 report softened the headline likelihood from “very high (90%+)” to “high,” reflecting the retraction of the Cox thesis (the 90%+ figure was partly Cox-driven).

⚠️ Expected premium: 30-50% over standalone trading price. CARFAX’s brand value and data moat justify a strategic premium. PE buyers would pay 20-30%; a strategic data/dealer buyer would pay 30-50%.

6. SpinCo as acquirer

⚠️ If Mobility Global remains independent, likely M&A targets include:

• International vehicle history companies (Carvertical, HPI) to expand CARFAX globally
• EV data startups (battery health analytics, charging network data)
• Dealer technology platforms to deepen dealer workflow integration
• ⚠️ Timeline: 12-24 months post-spin minimum (debt paydown first), then bolt-on acquisitions in the $100M-$1B range

7. Structural features

✅ Tax-free spinoff for US federal tax purposes ✅ Targeting investment-grade credit rating ❓ Exchange ratio: TBD ❓ Distribution ratio: TBD ❓ TSA (transition service agreements) with S&P Global: Likely for IT, HR, finance functions during transition. Duration and cost unknown. ❓ Insider lockup periods: Unknown

Investment Thesis

1. Bull case

CARFAX is a generational franchise — a consumer-facing data monopoly with 60% margins, 40 years of irreplaceable data, and deep dealer embedding. As a standalone, Mobility Global re-rates to premium data-company multiples (25-30x EBITDA) and attracts acquisition interest within 12-24 months at a 30-50% premium. EV transition and international expansion provide multi-year growth runway beyond current 8% rate. Total return potential: 50-100% within 2 years.

2. Bear case

Standalone at $1.6B revenue, Mobility Global is a small-cap data company in a cyclical end-market. If auto sales decline meaningfully, dealer subscriptions churn and consumer report purchases fall. OEMs increasingly collect vehicle data directly via connected car platforms, slowly eroding CARFAX’s information advantage over a 5-10 year horizon. S&P Global loads significant debt onto SpinCo, limiting capital flexibility and suppressing equity returns. No acquisition materializes due to antitrust concerns or valuation disagreements with PE buyers. Total return: flat to -20% over 2 years.

3. Top 3 catalysts (next 12 months)

1. ✅ May 7, 2026 — Public Form 10 (filed): Standalone financial statements, debt structure (~$2B notes, <2.5x leverage), and risk factors now public — resolved most ❓ items in this analysis.
2. ✅ May 12, 2026 — Investor Day (delivered): Standalone framework laid out — 7.5-10% organic growth, 8-11% adj. EBITDA growth, +50bps/yr margin, 75%+ FCF return, dividend at 20-25% of GAAP net income.
3. ⚠️ June 15 record date / July 1 distribution: Forced selling by index funds and investors avoiding automotive exposure could create a buying opportunity in the first 30-60 days of MBGL trading; index inclusion follows.

4. Top 3 risks

1. ⚠️ Debt load at spin: If S&P Global assigns heavy debt ($3B+), equity value compression and limited strategic flexibility follow.
2. ⚠️ Auto market cyclicality: A recession or meaningful decline in used vehicle transactions would directly impact CARFAX subscription revenue and report volumes.
3. ❓ OEM disintermediation over time: Long-term risk that connected car data from OEMs erodes the value of third-party vehicle history reports. Not an imminent threat but a structural question for the 5-10 year thesis.

5. Capital return framework

❓ No guidance available. Expected sequence based on typical spinoff patterns and reported intent:

1. Debt management (months 0-12): Prioritize maintaining investment-grade rating. Unlikely to aggressively pay down debt immediately, but will manage within rating agency expectations.
2. Dividend initiation (months 0-6): ⚠️ Likely a modest initial dividend (1-2% yield) to broaden investor appeal.
3. Buybacks (months 12-24): ⚠️ If trading at a discount to intrinsic value, management may authorize a buyback program.
4. M&A (months 18-36): Bolt-on acquisitions once leverage normalizes and standalone operations are stabilized.

Report-by-Report Analysis

Analysis — May 31, 2026

Full section — Form 10 made public, Investor Day delivered, and final terms (ticker, record/distribution dates) set. The transaction is now fully de-risked on timing.

• Company: S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) — Current Price: ~$424.00 (May 29, 2026)
• SpinCo: Mobility Global, Inc. (ticker MBGL, NYSE)
• Industry: Automotive Data & Technology
• Expected Completion: July 1, 2026
• Structure: Classic Spinoff
• Investment Grade: A+ (Top Pick) — score 4.60

Financial Structure

Key Developments Since Last Report

• May 7, 2026: Form 10 publicly filed (previously confidential)
• May 12, 2026: Investor Day in NYC — CEO Bill Eager and CFO-designate Matt Calderone laid out a medium-term framework: 7.5-10% organic revenue growth, 8-11% adj. EBITDA growth, +50bps/yr margin expansion, 75%+ of FCF returned annually, dividend at 20-25% of GAAP net income
• Terms announced: Ticker MBGL (NYSE); record date June 15, 2026; distribution July 1, 2026 (12:01am ET); 1 MBGL per 1 SPGI; S&P retains 0%; when-issued window June 26-30
• ~$2B senior unsecured notes launched to fund a one-time cash payment (up to ~$1.95B) to S&P Global

Management Team

Transaction Timeline

• February 3, 2026: Rebranded as Mobility Global
• May 7, 2026: Form 10 publicly filed ✅
• May 12, 2026: Investor Day ✅
• June 15, 2026: Record date — deadline to own SPGI to qualify ⚠️
• June 26-30, 2026: When-issued trading
• July 1, 2026: Distribution & first regular-way MBGL trading 📅

Investment Scorecard

Grade Change: Unchanged (A+). Form 10 publication, the delivered Investor Day, and a firm July 1 distribution date reinforce the thesis. Correction: prior “Cox Automotive most-likely-acquirer” framing retracted as unsubstantiated (name confusion with Cox’s own “Mobility” division); CARFAX’s underlying acquisition appeal is intact.

Acquisition Analysis

Potential Acquirers: PE data buyers (Vista, Thoma Bravo, Silver Lake); large auto dealer groups; data/AI platforms. Acquisition Likelihood: HIGH. Recommendation: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ STRONG BUY — position before the June 15 record date.

Analysis — April 15, 2026

• Company: S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) — Current Price: ~$432.94 (April 15, 2026)
• SpinCo: Mobility Global, Inc.
• Industry: Automotive Data & Technology
• Expected Completion: Mid-2026
• Structure: Classic Spinoff
• Investment Grade: A+ (TOP PICK)
• Key Thesis: Exceptional 60% EBITDA margins, iconic CARFAX brand with near-monopoly in used car data, high acquisition potential. Investor Day confirmed for May 12, 2026 in New York City.

Transaction Overview

• Original Company: S&P Global — financial information and analytics leader
• SpinCo: Mobility Global, Inc. — CARFAX, automotiveMastermind, Polk, Market Scan ($1.6B revenue, 8% growth)
• RemainCo: S&P Global — ratings, indices, Platts, Market Intelligence
• Rationale: Sharpen RemainCo’s financial-markets focus while giving Mobility standalone autonomy in $30B+ automotive data market

Financial Structure

Key Developments Since Last Report

• April 6, 2026: Renato Negro named CAO (reporting to CFO-designate Matt Calderone)
• March 25, 2026: Investor Day formally set for May 12, 2026 in NYC (was referenced as Q2)
• Form 10 remains confidentially filed; public filing expected shortly ahead of May 12 Investor Day
• Public debt offering, equity roadshow still expected Q2 2026

Management Team

Transaction Timeline

• April 29, 2025: Spinoff announced
• November 13, 2025: S&P Global Investor Day
• February 3, 2026: Rebranded as Mobility Global
• April 6, 2026: CAO appointed
• May 12, 2026: Mobility Global Investor Day
• Mid-2026: Expected separation
• Record date: TBD (late Q2 2026)

Investment Analysis

SpinCo Strengths:

• 60% EBITDA margins — exceptional for data businesses
• CARFAX near-monopoly in used-vehicle history data
• Full C-suite in place — CEO, CFO, CAO, and business-unit presidents named
• 8% revenue growth in mature auto market
• EV transition opens new data opportunities (battery, charging)
• Targeting investment-grade credit rating

SpinCo Risks:

• Cyclical automotive market exposure
• Dealer/OEM building competing data platforms
• Smaller scale as standalone ($1.6B)

SpinCo Catalysts:

• May 12 Investor Day — major pricing-discovery event
• Form 10 public filing imminent
• Q2 public debt offering
• Acquisition potential remains very high

Investment Scorecard

Acquisition Analysis

Potential Acquirers:

1. Cox Automotive: Autotrader, KBB, Manheim — obvious strategic combination with CARFAX
2. Auto dealer groups (AutoNation, Lithia, CarMax): Want to own customer data
3. Microsoft/Google: Automotive data for AI training
4. Vista, Thoma Bravo, Silver Lake: High-margin data asset fit

Acquisition Likelihood: VERY HIGH (90%+)

Recommendation: STRONG BUY — Position before May 12 Investor Day and record date announcement.

Analysis — March 2, 2026

Full section — rebrand, Form 10 filing, and SPGI stock reaction are material new developments.

• Company: S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) — Current Price: ~$441.88
• SpinCo: Mobility Global, Inc. (formerly S&P Mobility)
• Investment Grade: A+ (TOP PICK)

Key Developments Since Last Report

• February 3, 2026: Rebranded as Mobility Global, Inc. — SPGI stock slid 10% on the news
• Form 10: Confidentially filed with SEC; public filing expected Q2 2026
• Q2 2026 Planned Events: Investor Day, equity roadshow, public debt offering (targeting investment-grade rating)
• Leadership: Bill Eager confirmed as designated CEO

Financial Structure

Investment Analysis

SpinCo Strengths:

• Exceptional 60% EBITDA margins — among highest in data businesses
• CARFAX near-monopoly — iconic brand with decades of vehicle history data
• Data moat — proprietary vehicle history database impossible to replicate
• 8% revenue growth despite mature automotive market
• Full leadership team in place
• Targeting investment-grade credit rating (positive signal)

SpinCo Risks:

• Cyclical automotive market exposure
• Competition from dealers and OEMs building own data platforms
• Smaller scale as standalone ($1.6B revenue)
• SPGI dropped 10% on rebrand announcement — market concerned about losing the asset

SpinCo Catalysts:

• VERY HIGH acquisition potential — CARFAX is strategic asset
• EV transition driving new data/analytics demand
• International expansion (CARFAX primarily US/Canada)
• Q2 Investor Day will be a major catalyst for price discovery

Acquisition Analysis

Potential Acquirers:

1. Cox Automotive: Owns Autotrader, Kelley Blue Book, Manheim — consolidate with CARFAX
2. Auto dealer groups (AutoNation, Lithia, CarMax): Want to own CARFAX data
3. Microsoft/Google: Automotive data for AI training
4. Private Equity (Vista, Thoma Bravo, Silver Lake): Love high-margin data businesses

Acquisition Likelihood: VERY HIGH (90%+)

Recommendation: STRONG BUY — Monitor for Q2 2026 Investor Day and public Form 10 filing. Position before record date announcement.

Analysis — January 29, 2026

Full section — full management team announced for the first time, a material milestone.

• Company: S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
• SpinCo: S&P Mobility
• Expected Completion: Q2 2026
• Investment Grade: A+ (TOP PICK)

Management Team (NEW — Fully Announced)

POSITIVE SIGNAL: Full C-suite now in place, experienced leadership team assembled.

Financial Structure

Investment Analysis

SpinCo Strengths:

• Exceptional 60% EBITDA margins — among highest in data businesses
• CARFAX near-monopoly — iconic brand with decades of vehicle history data
• Data moat — proprietary vehicle history database impossible to replicate
• 8% revenue growth despite mature automotive market
• Full leadership team now in place

SpinCo Risks:

• Cyclical automotive market exposure
• Competition from dealers and OEMs building own data platforms
• Smaller scale as standalone ($1.6B revenue)

SpinCo Catalysts:

• VERY HIGH acquisition potential — CARFAX is strategic asset
• EV transition driving new data/analytics demand
• International expansion (CARFAX primarily US/Canada)

Acquisition Analysis

Potential Acquirers:

1. Cox Automotive: Owns Autotrader, Kelley Blue Book, Manheim — consolidate with CARFAX
2. Auto dealer groups (AutoNation, Lithia, CarMax): Want to own CARFAX data
3. Microsoft/Google: Automotive data for AI training
4. Private Equity (Vista, Thoma Bravo, Silver Lake): Love high-margin data businesses

Acquisition Likelihood: VERY HIGH (90%+)

Recommendation: STRONG BUY — Position for Q1-Q2 2026 record date.

Analysis — October 24, 2025

Summary — initial formal grading and detailed analysis. Core thesis established here; financials unchanged in later reports.

• Investment Grade: A+ (TOP PICK) — first formal grade assigned
• Promoted from #7 to #1 ranking across all tracked spinoffs
• Timeline: Q2-Q3 2026 (narrowed from “Late 2026”)
• Standalone valuation: 15-20x EBITDA = $14-19B market cap
• With acquisition premium (30-50%): $18-28B+ takeout value
• Cox Automotive identified as #1 potential acquirer (Autotrader + KBB + Manheim + CARFAX = automotive data monopoly)
• Silver Lake added to PE acquirer list
• Management team not yet announced (key pending catalyst)
• Full analysis established core thesis: CARFAX near-monopoly, 60% margins, data moat, very high acquisition probability

Analysis — October 23, 2025

Summary — first mention. Brief overview only, pre-grading system.

• Listed as spinoff #7 (not yet prioritized as top pick)
• No formal letter grade — described as “highly attractive” and “could be one of the best spinoff opportunities in 2026”
• Revenue $1.6B, 8% growth, ~$960M EBITDA, ~60% EBITDA margin
• Expected Late 2026 (12-18 months from April 2025 announcement)
• Management team not yet announced
• Acquisition likelihood rated “High” with 30-50% premium potential
• Six potential acquirer categories identified (Cox, dealer groups, big tech, OEMs, financial data cos, PE)
• S&P Global Investor Day November 13, 2025 flagged as key upcoming event